"Moore's Law Dead by 2022" - Then, Before or .... ?
“Moore’s Law Dead by 2022” announces EE Times headline reporting Bob Colwell’s keynote at Hot Chips this week. Actual quote: "Moore's Law -- the ability to pack twice as many transistors on the same sliver of silicon every two years -- will come to an end as soon as 2020 at the 7nm node". Collwell told the audience that DARPA “tracks a list of as many as 30 possible alternatives to the CMOS technology that has been the workhorse of Moore's Law …My personal take is there are two or three promising ones and they are not very promising,". Colwell is the Director of DARPA’s Microsystems Technology Office (MTO) and has both visibility and credibility in these matters. In fact, this is not his first time to publicly state the end of Moore's Law -- he did so at ACM SIGDA and DAC meetings earlier this year. His slide (below) clearly presents the gap between the end of dimensional (Dennard) scaling and the establishment and ramp-up of alternatives to the current silicon based technology.
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