Predicting Semiconductor Industry Growth: Drop the Crystal Ball and Use the Gompertz Curve
By using the well-tested Gompertz function, semiconductor companies have a way to determine areas in which to focus their attention and investments.
Is there a way to predict the future of semiconductor revenue driven by new products? This was the provocative question Dr. Walden (Wally) Rhines, Chairman and CEO of Mentor Graphics, asked and answered in a recent keynote presentation at Mentor's U2U User Group in Munich, Germany.
Wally started by looking at the history of the semiconductor industry and observed that, over time, its growth has been powered by applications that took off and grew enormous amounts of revenue. Examples include the calculator, the PC, and the wireless handset revolution. Each stepped up the revenue, grew, and flattened, and then a new product came along and the cycle repeated itself.
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