Conclusion of the USB 3.0 IP forecast from IPNEST

By SemiWiki

October 17, 2011

Using the “Diffusion of Innovation” theory, we have built a forecast for the market of USB 3.0 IP in 2011-2015. In this new version of the report, we have inserted the actual revenues generated by USB 3.0 IP from different vendors, for 2009 and 2010, and reworked the 2011-2015 forecast. Initially, we had expected this IP market to ramp up very fast, because the USB technology is already familiar to the end user, so the market adoption should be easier than for other emerging technology. In fact, the ramp-up is not as fast as expected, and the reason is crystal clear: even if the technology is already available and demonstrated in applications like external storage, the most important enabler was missing: the availability of PC or Notebook with native SuperSpeed USB support, or USB 3.0 included in the PC chipset. Because the electronic industry is expecting such an introduction to come in Q2 2012, and PC shipments to follow quickly and reach a rate greater than 80% during 2013, the sales for USB 3.0 IP are breaking a barrier: after “Innovators” and “Early Adopter”, USB 3.0 is expecting to reach “Early Majority” starting in 2012. Because of the SoC design cycle, IP sales are happening now, at OEM designing for Consumer Electronic and other mass market applications.

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