Cowan LRA model: Global semicon sales forecast update based on Aug. 2010's actual sales

By _Pradeep's Point!

October 7, 2010

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers. This Monday, (10-04-10) the WSTS posted the August 2010 global semiconductor sales report (Historical Billings Report, HBR) on its website. Therefore, with the WSTS having released its actual August 2010 global semiconductor sales number, Cowan has provided the latest monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model’s derived forecast numbers.

The updated sales forecast estimates for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 decreased very slightly from the previous month’s forecast estimates as summarized below.

The actual August 2010 global semiconductor sales published by the WSTS came in at $25.358 billion which is:

• 30.8 percent higher than 2009′s August sales of $19.175 billion;
• Up 3.2 percent from last month’s (July) sales of $24.570 billion;
• And lower (by $0.090 billion, or down 0.35 percent) compared to last month’s (July’s projection) sales forecast estimate, that is, $25.448 billion;
• The Cowan LRA Model’s Momentum Indicator, MI, went slightly negative (-0.35 percent) compared to last month’s plus posture (at +5.0 percent), as discussed below.

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