Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

By SemiWiki

February 21, 2013

The above quote is attributed to both physicist Niels Bohr and baseball’s Yogi Berra. The statement certainly applies to predicting the semiconductor market. Semiconductors operate on physical principles. However the market for semiconductors is affected by numerous factors. The outcome of a baseball game can be determined by a single pitch which could result in a strikeout or a home run. Semiconductors are at the end of the electronics food chain. Semiconductor companies are dependent on electronics companies, who are dependent on buying patterns of businesses, government and consumers. At each level of the supply chain are distributors, inventories, and outsourced manufacturing. Despite these complexities, many organizations, companies and individuals still try to forecast the semiconductor market.

How accurate are these predictions? I have collected forecasts for the last five years from publicly available sources. The forecasts used were released in the period from October of the prior year to the end of February in the forecast year. Thus the forecasts were made before any monthly data for the forecast year was available from WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics). The charts below show the forecasts in sequential order compared to the final market data for the year from WSTS.

To read the full article, click here