Dan Niles: Tapering and the Global Economy
Yesterday was Dan Niles quarterly review that he does for GSA. As always he starts from the big picture of the world economy and works his way to a semiconductor forecast. The focus of this quarter was whether the world economy is strong enough for the US to "taper" and reduce the amount of quantitative easing (aka flooding the US market with liquidity).
The US economy is in OK shape, not great. Unemployment is still high. Household wealth is improving, but it is very unevenly distributed. The stock market is up 150% and housing is up a lot from the bottom. But only relatively well off people have those assets and what everyone else needs is jobs. Given the amount of stimulus, GDP growth at 1.4% is pretty anemic.
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