After 1Q23 Bottom, Expectations Increase for a 2Q23 IC Market Rebound

Notably, the IC market has never shown more than three sequential quarters of decline!

November 11, 2022 -- The November Quarterly Update to the 2022 McClean Report will be released later this month. This Update includes a discussion of the 2022-2026 semiconductor industry forecast by major product type, an updated forecast for semiconductor industry capital spending through 2026, and a look at the expected top-25 2022 semiconductor suppliers.

Over its 60-year history, the IC industry is well known for its cyclical behavior. Looking back to the mid-1970s, there hasn’t been a period where the IC market declined for more than three quarters in a row. Following a 9% drop in the 3Q22 IC market, and assuming the 4Q22 and 1Q23 IC markets register a decline, the 3Q22-1Q23 timeperiod would mark the seventh three-quarter IC market drop on record (Figure 1).

Figure 1

As shown, there hasn’t been a three-quarter decline in the IC market since 4Q18-2Q19. Moreover, the three-quarter decline in 2001 was the steepest on record, with three double-digit declines, which led to a 33% annual decline—the most severe annual IC market drop in history.

Given that the IC industry has never registered a four-quarter sequential IC market decline, expectations are high for a return to IC market growth beginning in 2Q23. While the U.S. and China trade war is an unpredictable “wildcard” for near-term IC market growth scenarios, 2Q23 is currently expected to display modest 3% increase. However, even with a rebound in IC sales beginning in 2Q23, the total IC market is forecast to drop by 6% next year.

Report Details: The 2023 McClean Report

The 2023 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Semiconductor Industry, will be released in January 2023. A subscription to The McClean Report service includes the January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report, which provides clients with an initial overview and forecast of the semiconductor industry for 2023 through 2027. In addition to the January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report, Quarterly Updates to the report will be released in February, May, August, and November of 2023.

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