The Recovery Base Is Fragile, Future Horizons’ Penn Says

“Europe is not as good as many Europeans think but not as bad as most non-Europeans also believe,” Future Horizons’ CEO Malcolm Penn said. 

By Anne-Françoise Pelé, EETimes Europe | April 15, 2025 

The global chip market will grow by 12%, plus or minus 10%, in 2025, Malcolm Penn, founder and CEO of Future Horizons, forecasted in his keynote speech at the recent ISS Europe conference in Sopot, Poland. However, he warned us not to be blinded by this double-digit percentage and to read between the lines, as “the recovery base is fragile.”

Believe it or not

Despite posting nearly 20% growth in 2024, the semiconductor industry saw little cause for celebration. The increase, initially forecast at 17.6%, was largely driven by higher average selling prices (ASPs) rather than a genuine rise in unit demand. However, Penn argued, there can be no real recovery until unit sales increase.

“20% growth: We dream of such a number, but we thought it was a horrible number because it didn’t reflect the reality we were seeing,” Penn said. “The foundation for last year’s growth was so very fragile and unsustainable that we didn’t really believe it was real.” Key indicators such as fab utilization remained weak throughout the year, “except at the very leading edge,” he added.

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