HBM4 Mass Production Delayed to End of 1Q26 By Spec Upgrades and Nvidia Strategy Adjustments

January 8, 2026 -- TrendForce’s recent investigations indicate that Nvidia has revised the HBM4 specifications for its Rubin platform in 3Q25, raising the required per-pin speed to above 11 Gbps. This change has necessitated that the three major HBM suppliers modify their designs. 

Furthermore, strong demand for Nvidia’s previous-generation Blackwell products, driven by the ongoing AI boom, has prompted the company to adjust its mass-production timeline for the Rubin platform. Together, these factors have pushed back the ramp-up of HBM4, with mass production now expected to begin no earlier than the end of 1Q26.

TrendForce notes that SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all resubmitted HBM4 samples and continue to refine their designs in response to Nvidia’s more stringent requirements. Compared with its peers, Samsung has taken an early lead by adopting a 1 cnm process for HBM4 and utilizing advanced in-house foundry technology for the base die. 

This approach is expected to enable higher transmission speeds, positioning Samsung as the most likely supplier to qualify first and potentially gain an advantage in supplying higher-end Rubin products. SK hynix, meanwhile, has already secured HBM contracts and is therefore expected to retain a dominant share of total HBM supply bits in 2026.

Changes in Nvidia’s product strategy are another key factor affecting the pace of HBM4 qualification. As AI-driven demand for Blackwell-series products is set to surge in 1H26, Nvidia has raised its shipment targets for B300/GB300 and increased orders for HBM3e, while simultaneously revising the Rubin production schedule. 

These adjustments have provided HBM suppliers with additional time to fine-tune their HBM4 products. Based on current qualification progress, TrendForce estimates that mass production of HBM4 across suppliers will most likely commence between late 1Q26 and early 2Q26.

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